What are the odds of Trump winning the 2024 election according to Polymarket after the debate?

What are the odds of Trump winning the 2024 election according to Polymarket after the debate?

Trump’s Odds Surge Post-Debate, Biden’s Chances Dwindle

### Trump’s Odds Soar

Donald Trump’s chances of securing the presidency in 2024 have witnessed a remarkable surge after the first presidential debate, revealed by Polymarket, a prediction market platform. The former president’s odds have shot up to a remarkable 67%, indicating a growing belief among bettors that he could reclaim the White House.

### Blockchain Bettors Express Skepticism over Biden’s Performance

The skepticism surrounding President Joe Biden’s performance in the debate served as the catalyst for this surge in Trump’s odds. Blockchain bettors displayed little confidence in Biden’s abilities, driving up the odds of a Trump victory. The market has wagered approximately $188 million on the outcome of the election, with a substantial $23 million placed on Trump and $21 million on Biden.

### Biden’s Nomination Chances Questioned

Polymarket also highlights a declining sentiment in the market regarding Biden’s prospects of securing the Democratic nomination. The platform estimates a less than 70% likelihood of Biden being the party’s nominee, opening the door for other candidates. California Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged as a potential challenger, reaching a high of 17%, while former First Lady Michelle Obama has also garnered attention, registering up to 7%.

### Biden’s Withdrawal Probability on the Rise

Adding to Biden’s challenges, the possibility of him withdrawing from the race has also gained traction. During the debate, a Polymarket contract exploring this scenario saw a surge, with the probability climbing to 43%.

### Crypto Market Reflects Skepticism

The sentiments expressed in the prediction market have found resonance in the cryptocurrency market. PoliFi token traders have witnessed declines in both major tokens representing Trump and Biden. The MAGA token (TRUMP) has seen a 12.5% drop, while the BODEN token has lost 34%.

### Crypto’s Absence from the Debate

Despite its increasing presence as a campaign issue for Republicans, cryptocurrency remained largely unaddressed during the debate. A Polymarket contract predicted a low likelihood of Trump mentioning crypto or bitcoin, with a probability of only 6%.

### Independent Candidate Gains Attention

Although independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was not part of the main debate, he hosted a special broadcast in response to the questions posed to Trump and Biden. This broadcast garnered a substantial 5.6 million views on social media, showcasing his ability to capture public attention.

### Conclusion

The aftermath of the first presidential debate has significantly impacted the odds of candidates in the 2024 election. Trump’s odds have received a major boost, while Biden’s chances have faced scrutiny. The market’s skepticism about Biden’s performance and nomination prospects has contributed to this shift in odds. The cryptocurrency market has also reflected these sentiments, with token prices declining for both Trump and Biden. As the election cycle progresses, Polymarket will continue to provide insights into the evolving market perceptions and the trajectory of the race.

By Deepika

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